Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Dry bulk market could rebound from historical lows in the coming weeks

In Hellenic Shipping News 25/02/2015

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The dry bulk market could exit from its historical lows in the coming weeks, as Chinese buyers reenter the market after the holiday celebrations. This is already evident from the iron ore fixture activity. According to the latest report from shipbroker Golden Destiny, “Chinese iron ore fixture volume shows solid levels. According to Commodore Research, there is an increase in Chinese iron ore fixture volume with 26 vessels being chartered to haul iron ore to Chinese buyers last week, 5 more than the previous week and 3 more than the trailing four week average”.
The Piraeus-based shipbroker added that “fixture volume has remained moderately above the relatively low volume seen in early January. Meanwhile, Chinese steel production remains under serious pressure as recently data from the China Iron and Steel Association shows that average daily crude steel production at China’ key steel mills totaled 1.69 million tons during January 21 to January 31. This is the same level that was reported by CISA from January 11 to January 20 and the lowest seen since late November. In the thermal coal market, Chinese fixture volume is not so strong as in the iron ore market 4 vessels were chartered to haul spot thermal coal cargoes to Chinese buyers last week, 3 less than was chartered during the previous week and 1 less the trailing four week average. Overall, demand for imported thermal coal remains well below the peak level last seen in January 2014. One more negative factor in the coal market with a dismal influence on the panamax segment is that India’s power plant coal stockpiles have increased further this week and now exceed the stockpile level seen a year ago. At present, approximately 18.6 million tons of coal is stockpiled at Indian power plants. This is 100,000 tons more than was stockpiled a year ago”, said Golden Destiny.
It also mentioned that “the levels of BDI could not found support from any vessel size and ultramax newbuilding deliveries have an intense downward effect on the performance of panamax and handymax markets. The Chinese iron ore fixture volume fuels some hopes for better returns in the capesize segment after the end of Chinese New Year, but there is still high uncertainty for the performance till the end of the first quarter of the year. Currently, a positive sign of these days is that there is a decrease in Chinese iron ore port stockpiles and approximately of 93 mil tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, down year-on-year by 5.5 million tons (-6%). Iron ore price persists at record 6 years’ low of $62/ton as Chinese iron ore appetite is holding back due to Lunar New Year”.
It’s also noteworthy that the LNG segment is in similar mode. “LNG spot rates remain in the doldrums, while there are market indications about LNG carriers being laid up around Singapore. According to shipping data on Thomson Reuters, seven tankers have been sitting idle off the east coast of Johor, Malaysia, for over two weeks, and another two ships have been anchored south of Batam, Indonesia, for several months. Half a dozen LNG tankers are in Singaporean docks. The 15 ships have a combined capacity to carry 2.26 million cubic metres of LNG, about two weeks worth of Singapore’s gas demand. LNG spot rates have now declined to $54,800/day despite roughly 5 fixtures being reported this week”.
Meanwhile, in shipping finance deals this week as tracked by Golden Destiny, “BW LPG Limited announced that it has signed a Facility Agreement for a debt facility of up to USD400 million for financing seven of its VLGC newbuildings. The financing has been raised from The Export-Import Bank of Korea (“KEXIM”) as Export Credit Agency (ECA) lender, with DNB Asia Limited (“DNB”) and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (Publ), Singapore Branch, (“SEB”) as Mandated Lead Arrangers and commercial lenders.DNB and HSBC Bank Plc. (“HSBC”) acted as ECA structuring advisors with HSBC also acting as ECA coordinator.
The Facility comprises the following: An ECA tranche of up to USD268 million that is being provided by KEXIM, representing approximately 67% of the facility amount. A Commercial tranche of up to USD133 million, split equally between the two commercial lenders, representing approximately 33% of the facility amount. The debt financing will be secured against seven of the Company’s VLGC newbuildings. The blended margin over LIBOR applicable across all tranches of the financing is 1.70% p.a., and the weighted average amortisation profile will be 18 years”, Golden Destiny concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide