In Hellenic Shipping News 30/06/2016
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Shipping will definitely be affected by the aftermath of the “Leave” vote win, during the referendum conducted in the UK last week. However, few analysts attempt to decode the exact consequences of such an event, just yet. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal noted that “we will have to wait much longer to fully see the impact of this rather unexpected divorce between Britain and the E.U. on our industry, while the fact that all dry bulk indices, opposite to most global market indices, rose on Friday, is strong evidence of how hard this correlation is at the moment. If anything buying interest for bulkers appears to be unaffected for now. Kamsarmaxes, Panamaxes and Supramaxes built during the last decade are currently the most popular, with Japanese built tonnage naturally gathering most inspections. Despite the undoubtedly firm activity though, there is still a lot of insecurity among owners who remain sceptic in regards to how long it will take before a meaningful recovery takes place. As for those owners who are currently contemplating to buy, this feeling of insecurity is additionally also fed by the recent firming of prices which definitely makes the decision to invest costlier and consequently riskier. Saying that and despite this recent firming in dry bulk asset values, prices are still low. Last week we saw the M/V KEY BOUNDARY (83kdwt, blt 2010, Sanoyas) being committed in the region of USD 13.7m, while about a year ago a similar vessel was marketed at around $ 21.5m.
According to Intermodal’s, Giannis Andritsopoulos, SnP Broker, “last week closed off with a massive shockwave for markets across the world following the British referendum, the result of which will mark the beginning of the process for the country’s exit from the European Union. Despite the fact that the medium and long term effects of this historical decision are hard to assess at the moment, the shockwaves from Thursday’s result were felt by nearly everyone in the investing community. Wiped out stock values, a plunge in oil prices and of course a shaky sterling were some of the immediate referendum effects, while the shipping industry, already fundamentally challenged in many ways is still trying to figure out what to expect by this new development. Brexit will introduce a new reality for the British people that will bring along massive challenges for the country’s economy but will also result in a stronger effort by the Britons in order to become more competitive, with newly formed or altered trade agreements with other countries that are bound to impact the shipping industry as well”.
Andritsopoulos added that “as far as tankers are concerned, the second hand market still remains on a downward path. The M/T SIGNAL MAYA (46kdwt, blt 2005, Naikai Zosen) was sold in the region of $ 15.5m and the M/T STAVANGER EAGLE (45kdwt, blt 2004, Shin Kurushima) was sold in the region of $ 16.0m. Owners’ ideas for ten year old vessels were in the high $ 18.0m some time ago but have now come down to $ 16.0m and it looks very possible that they will keep going lower. As far as bigger vessels are concerned things are similar, the M/T E ELEPHANT (317kdwt, blt 2011, Hyundai) which was sold in the region of $ 55.6m, while the similar vessel M/T HANJIN RAS TANURA (309kdwt, blt 2011, Hyundai) was sold in the region of $ 75.0m back in February”.
Concluding his analysis, Intermodal’s broker said that “as a general observation, we are seeing two broad categories of buyers. Big shipowners who have been inspecting, offering -even low – and end up buying. These owners believe that this is the right time to renew their fleet and hope to also benefit from the eventual recovery of the market, which will result in the increase in value of an asset bought at low levels that should compensate them for the time they will have to financially support their investment. On the other hand, there are these owners who keep inspecting but do not offer, waiting to do so only when a clear sign of recovery is visible even if this means that they will have to face higher asset values when the time comes. Either or we don’t see the Brexit seriously affecting the logic of any of these two categories of Buyers for now”.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
