In Hellenic Shipping News 04/02/2017
The tanker market is actively looking for positive factors moving forward, in a bid to recover some of the lost ground. However, as shipowner Euronav noted in its latest market analysis, things aren’t looking so bright. Euronav said that “the tanker market finds itself at an interesting intersection as medium and longer-term positives (restricted financing driving limited contracting, increased environmental regulation taking effect from 2017, robust demand for crude) continue to build momentum but are likely to be overshadowed by a number of negative short-term factors driving the market during 2017 (OPEC production cuts, delivery of new vessels, limited scrapping, anemic owner sentiment). Euronav sees a number of short-term factors dominating during 2017 before focus on a positive medium-term market structure can develop”.
According to the shipowner, “in terms of short-term headwinds, firstly the OPEC-led production cuts will begin to impact during Q1 (mid to late January) and present a headwind for tanker markets until at least the summer months when long established seasonal trading patterns typically reduce demand. Secondly, 2017 will see the peak of the order book delivery schedule with at least 40 VLCC equivalents (VLCC & Suezmax vessels expressed as VLCC capacity) expected to enter the global fleet in the first half of 2017 alone. Owner sentiment and behavior has been weak in the face of similar vessel delivery albeit at lower levels during the second half of 2016 suggesting potential freight rate pressure during this delivery period. Thirdly, older tonnage is likely to remain and act as disruptive capacity in 2017 as pressure to scrap is neutralized to some extent by an uncertainty over approved ballast water and sulphur cap systems and an ability to defer direct application of the new environmental regulations starting in September 2017, as covered in more detail below. Lastly, continued restrictive access to financing for ship owners and anemic owner confidence are likely to combine all of these factors to produce a challenging freight rate environment for 2017”.
Euronav added that “medium-term drivers though remain positive. Demand for crude oil remains supportive with upward pressure on demand forecasts into 2017 as global GDP expectations are upgraded. Whilst the oil price has risen since OPEC announced production cuts, the resilience of the USA shale output and the return of disrupted supply (Nigeria, Libya) suggest that increased crude supply will respond quickly to higher prices and so prevent price-based demand destruction”.
The shipowner added that “increased regulation under the Ballast Water Management Convention coming into force in September 2017 and the Sulphur Oxides (SOx) Regulation from 2020 limiting the maximum sulphur content in fuel oil will help to increase pressure to scrap over time. There are 267 VLCCs in total (38% of current fleet) that will be at least 15 years old by 2020. This ageing profile will encourage a more rational medium-term behavior as owners will face increased regulatory costs over and above those from special surveys which are scheduled for every 30 months on vessels older than 15 years of age”.
It added that “a combination of rationed capital from traditional sources and a higher cost of capital have substantially reduced contracting activity in the past 12 to 15 months. In VLCC orders, 2016 was the third lowest year on record. The majority of orders were also being industrial replacement rather than speculative. Shipyards are also severely restricted in their financial flexibility and are entering a phase of rationalization, albeit with one caveat – political pressure to address overcapacity has eased in recent months and requires monitoring”.
Nevertheless, Euronav “remains consistent in its view expressed in recent communications that vessel supply in totality remains a manageable factor but that increased pockets of supply would periodically have a detrimental effect. The lack of contracting in the past 12 to 15 months encourages a positive medium-term view supported by consistent crude demand growth (IEA 2017-2020 forecast 1.2m bpd growth every year), increasing effect of environmental legislation toward 2020 and an adjustment to a rationed supply of capital for all. Euronav management has taken affirmative action over the past six months in rejuvenating the fleet whilst simultaneously improving our capital ratios and access to liquidity. With the lowest leverage in the big tanker sector and access to over USD 600 million of liquidity Euronav is well positioned to navigate the cycle – to be strategically opportunistic whilst remaining exposed to any potential upside from an improved freight rate environment”, the shipowner concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
