In Hellenic Shipping News 15/08/2016
SHIP VALUES
KEY DEMAND DEVELOPMENTS
ORDERBOOK
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Dry bulk owner Pacific Basin, mainly active in the Handysize and Supramax trades appeared optimistic in its analysis of the prospects of the dry bulk market moving forward. In short, high scrapping activity, lower ship deliveries from 2017 onwards, as a result of negligible newbuilding activity and increased slippage, could lead to a significant improvement of the demand/supply balance of the market moving forward.
According to Pacific Basin, “Handysize and Supramax spot market rates averaged US$3,900 and US$4,570 per day net respectively in the first half of 2016, representing a 22% and 27% decline in average earnings year on year. Baltic dry bulk freight market indices continued to decline in early 2016 to new record lows for all bulk carrier types which, in February, all recorded TCE earnings of less than US$3,000 per day. Such level of earnings is below cash operating expenses and conditions are estimated to have been as poor as those of the early 1970s. Freight rates were undermined mainly by a general seasonal and Chinese New Year slowdown in demand, lingering oversupply of dry bulk tonnage and lower Chinese imports of coal. Increased activity after mid-February supported improved market freight rates – more notably in the Atlantic due primarily to increased South American grain exports – albeit from a very low base and resulting in a very weak half-year period overall for dry bulk shipping”.
In terms of supply, Pacific Basin noted that “the global fleet of 25,000-40,000 dwt Handysize and 50,000-60,000 dwt Supramax ships grew 1.4% net and 2.3% net respectively during the half year, and there has been negligible net growth in the dry bulk fleet overall since the seasonal surge in new ship deliveries in January. Following a similar pattern to last year, new ship deliveries in the first half represented 3.6% of existing dry bulk capacity and full-year deliveries are projected to fall significantly short of the scheduled orderbook. All-time low freight earnings encouraged increased scrapping to 1.8% of existing dry bulk capacity in the first quarter – a level not seen in over 30 years. The second quarter saw a reduced pace of scrapping due to improved freight market conditions. In the half year overall, shipowners opted to delete 2.8% of total dry bulk capacity and 2.5% of Handysize capacity rather than continue to operate their older or poorly designed ships in such depressed trading conditions. For the first time since the 1980s, we observed a meaningful number of vessels withdrawn from the market for short-term idling or longer-term lay-up”.
The ship owner added that “values of benchmark five year old and newbuilding Handysize bulk carriers have reduced by 2% and 5% since the start of the year to US$9.3 million and US$19.5 million respectively as estimated by Clarksons Platou, and they appear to have stabilised. The significant gap between newbuilding and secondhand prices continues to discourage new ship ordering activity which will benefit freight market fundamentals in the future. Cancelled or abandoned newbuildings especially from Chinese shipyards are occasionally marketed for sale by shipbuilders at significant discounts”.
Meanwhile, “year on year, Clarksons Platou estimate dry bulk shipping demand in the first quarter to have increased by 0.4%. Key drivers through the first half included increased iron ore exports – especially from Brazil – as well as growth in Chinese steel exports and bauxite and copper concentrates imports, and strong exports of long-haul South American agricultural products. Chinese imports of seven key minor bulks increased by 5 million tonnes or 4% year on year, reflecting slower growth in Chinese industrial output. Having declined significantly in early 2015, coal volumes have been steadier since a year ago. Reduced bauxite exports from Malaysia have been largely offset by growth in longer haul volumes from Guinea and other Atlantic exporters. US petcoke exports in January to April increased 6% year on year driven by strong growth in Indian demand which has more than offset a decline in volumes to China. Despite the marginally positive year-on-year demand data, a typical seasonal fall in dry bulk trade volumes from the last quarter of 2015 to the first quarter of 2016 contributed to record low freight rates in the first quarter. Overall dry bulk demand improved in the second quarter, particularly in the Atlantic due primarily to increased South American grain exports”, said Pacific Basin.
Finally, “the dry bulk orderbook has reduced to 15% from 18% a year ago. New ordering for most dry bulk ship types was negligible in the first half of the year which is further increasing pressure on underutilised shipyards. New orders were substantially limited to thirty Valemax ore carriers dedicated to Vale’s own iron ore export trades and primarily built to replace an ageing Very Large Ore Carrier fleet. The significant orderbook shortfall and slippage continues, and we expect new ship deliveries in the full year 2016 to be similar to last year’s 49 million deadweight tonnes. We expect the absence of new ordering to result in significantly reduced new ship deliveries from next year onwards”, the ship owner concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
