In Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 17/03/2017
Dry bulk market observers are overjoyed at the current state of the market, as they are increasingly witnessing the erosion of positive fundamentals, which could trigger further freight rate increases. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “it seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has been set alight. There has been a growing bullish vibe being felt for several months now in this sector, generated by the successive decreases being seen in the orderbook-to-fleet ratio during the course of the past year and all indicators in the freight market pointing to an improved balance”.
According to Allied’s Head of Market Research & Asset Valuations, Mr. George Lazaridis, “the orderbook to fleet ratio for the dry bulk segment as a whole has now dropped to 7.72%, the lowest figure we have seen in over two decades now. This plays an important role in dissipating concerns over the glut in tonnage supply that we have seen in the market, though this is only half the picture. During the course of 2016, many viewed the excessively low earnings being a directly caused by the excessive number of newbuildings being delivered. Having witnessed both the drop in the orderbook and at the same time a considerable improvement in freight rates, one can easily make the presumption that the supply-demand balance in the market is improving and at a fairly good pace”.
Lazaridis added that “during the course of 2017, freight rates have held at levels well above what we were seeing back in 2016 and even 2015, while the recent rally that boosted the Baltic Dry Index to above 1,000 points before the start of the grain season in the Atlantic, has only re-enforced the bullish views that have been held by many in this regard. It is no surprise therefore that we have seen buyers quickly flocking back into the secondhand market with fears that they will “lose” the opportunities that are still present in the market”.
According to Allied’s analyst, “despite the fact that prices have on average risen by around 50% since the low levels of March 2016, asset prices can still be considered to be fairly competitive compared to what we have seen historically since the late 90’s. As such and with earnings now providing the promise of better returns and positive cash flows for new purchases, you can see that there is excess possibility for further price gains to be noted over the coming months. What’s more is that during the time period where we faced some of the biggest difficulties in the freight market, newbuilding prices continued to hold at abnormally high levels compared to equivalent periods in the past. As such secondhand asset prices are at an even higher the normal discount against what it costs to construct a similar vessel. This leaves the conclusion that if earnings continue to stay at “good” levels it will be hard to see similarly low price levels in the future for similarly aged vessels”.
He went on to mention that “all these conclusions are based on the assumption that we have reached a balance in the market and that demand will continue to grow at least at its current momentum, allowing for a continual improvement in the freight market. This is a fairly big if however, especially if you take a closer look at the volatility being noted in the commodity markets and the general uncertainty being played out in many of those economies that play a vital role in seaborne trade. Further shocks could derail this balance and bring another round of “pains”. Although this does need to be of concern, it seems that even if these negative scenarios play out their consequences to the market would be more minor and short-term then what similar events have caused in the recent past. As such one can’t blame those optimists out there and given the relatively lower risks that are in view, there are fair grounds to claim that opportunities are now much better than most that we have come by in the past 5 years”, Lazaridis concluded.
