In Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 02/06/2017
Capesize Index
Support – 9,468, 6,570
Resistance – 12,345, 12,944, 16,361
Resistance – 12,345, 12,944, 16,361
The Capesize index remains within the technical support zone between USD 9,468 – USD 12,345 and continues to price lower. We are now seeing pricing below the USD 11,414 support dating back to 5-5-17, and this is putting a bearish bias on the index within the support zone. Volume decreased last week, however the open interest remains stable at these levels. We are also trading below the 50 period MA, but this is still pointing in an upward trajectory. Technically the lower low and lower high are now putting a bearish bias on the index. We remain within the support zone, market buyers still need to see bullish rejection, or bullish engulfing candles within the zone before looking to enter from the buy side. A close above 12,944 should have market sellers looking to tighten risk as this would create a fresh high.
Capesize Q3 17 Daily
Support – 11,400, 11,124, 10,351
Resistance – 14,157, 14,694, 15,587, 15,643
Last week we noted the stochastic was at 71, and the Q3 futures were making lower highs and lower low’s, keeping the technical bearish, and suggesting we should see lower lows. We had concerns about a potential flag pattern, and the A, B, C formation that suggested a bullish element was possibly creeping in. This has failed to emerge. Fresh lows have been created and the stochastic is now at 26 and in oversold territory, creating bullish divergence with the stochastic. Not a buy signal, it does warn of a potential slowdown in momentum. Upward moves that fail between USD 14,157 and USD 14,167 would suggest down side continuation. Market buyers should look for higher lows for longer term buy signals, and rejection of support for short term/early entry buy signals.
Capesize v Panamax Q3 17 Spread
Support – 4,625, 4,509, 3,400
Resistance – 5,837, 6,626, 7,050
The Cape v Panamax Q3 17 spread had started to turn lower last week with a stochastic at 88, suggesting that we could once again revert back to the 34 period EMA. The corrective move has broken the USD 5,820 level and has now created a lower low for the first time since 13-2- 17. This would suggest the bull bias is moving from bullish to bearish, however, a lower high is needed to confirm this. The stochastic is now entering oversold territory with technical support at USD 4,625. A technical bounce from support would target upside resistance at USD 5,837. Failure to break the resistance would create a lower high and should attract technical sellers to the market ,targeting fresh lows. Any upside move that fails to make a fresh market high would be regarded as technically bearish and market longs should look to tighten risk.
Capesize Q3 v Cal 18 Daily
Support – (-525), (-645), (907)
Resistance– 240, 975, 1,122
The Capesize Q3 v Cal 18 spread had made a new high and the stochastic had gone from oversold to overbought. The technical pullback we were expecting failed to hold on the trend support, and has resulted in a break to the downside resulting in fresh lows. The stochastic is now oversold, but the technical is bearish due to the break in the 3 month support at USD 240. This will now be the first point of resistance. Upward moves that fail in this area would suggest bearish continuation to the downside, with the potential to create fresh lows. There is a technical support zone between USD – 525 and USD – 645. If support holds then short term market longs will be targeting technical resistance at USD 240. Longer term buyers should look for higher lows before entering the market.
Source: Freight Investor Services (FIS)
