In International Shipping News 29/07/2016
The ability for a containership to transit the Panama Canal has long been a defining vessel characteristic, with the emergence of a distinct ‘Panamax’ sector above 3,000 TEU, comprising vessels with a maximum beam of 32.3m. However, rapid upsizing has meant that the fleet capacity of ships in sizes Panamax and below has been dwarfed by the growing numbers of ‘Post-Panamax’ ships in recent years. By the start of July 2016, 63% of boxship capacity was unable to transit the old locks of the Panama Canal.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited
The opening of the new, expanded Panama Canal locks in June has ushered in a new era for the containership sector, and is prompting significant changes in asset and deployment trends. With a greater proportion of containership fleet capacity now able to transit the Canal, it is appropriate for the boxship fleet to be considered in a new light, and to be broken down into a new range of more relevant sectors.
Thou Shalt Not Pass
A New View Emerges
The recent completion of the canal’s third set of locks now enables many more boxships to transit, with only 15% of fleet capacity unable to pass through according to current official dimension restrictions. This change has led to the need to segment the boxship fleet in a fresh way, as shown on the graph.
At the start of July, the sub-3,000 TEU sector comprised 4.0m TEU, accounting for 20% of total fleet capacity (with 11% of capacity on order accounted for by this size range). In the 3-7,999 TEU ‘Intermediate’ sizes, all ships are now able to transit the canal, up from less than 50% previously, and a significant 36% of fleet capacity (but only 4% of the orderbook) falls into these sectors. The 8-11,999 TEU sector, totalling 5.0m TEU (25% of the fleet) comprises ‘Neo-Panamaxes’ likely to form part of the initial wave of upsizing on routes through the canal. Many ships sized 12-14,999 TEU are also seen as ‘Neo-Panamaxes’. While only 59 ships (of up to 13,500 TEU depending on the specific design) of the 192 ships in this sector are able to transit based on official limits, another 39 fall so close to these limits that they are likely to be able to transit. A further 50 ships in this sector would also be able to pass through if the beam restriction was raised to the already mooted 51m.
Finally, ships sized 15,000+ TEU have notably distinct designs from vessels in the 12-14,999 TEU sector, and are clearly too large to transit the current locks. While there were only 62 ships of this size in the fleet at the start of July (6% of fleet capacity), 40% of capacity on order falls into this size range.
New Sectors Locked In?
So, the recent expansion of the Panama Canal locks and the continued rapid upsizing of the fleet in recent years have both brought about the need for high-level segmentation of the containership fleet to evolve as well. As market dynamics continue to be affected by the recent developments, it’s clear that size matters and that the containership industry has reached a significant milestone. While it will remain important to track trends in the ‘old Panamax’ sector, the new breakdown of the containership fleet should help with keeping track of the fast-moving market developments as they unfold.
Source: Clarkson Research Services Limited
